The Population Decline In Russia

Hussein Mansho
AEPT 2 A


In the article," Russian decline; Population and health woes, and alcoholism", by Helle Dale, he discusses Russia’s population decline and its current economy resurgence. First, Russian ambition is back with its oil wealth and its leader Putin, but it is facing a population decline. Russian population is expected to decline to 99 million by 2050 and some expect it to be 77 million. Therefore, the author believes that the US will be stronger to lead the 21st century with the 419 million that its population is expected to be. Second, the author believes that Russia should deal with this population decline; because it is continually losing 700,000 people per year and that will be losing 31 percent between 2005 and 2050. This decline is because of the declining birthrates and the low life expectancy of its population. The birth rates in Russia are 1.2 to 1.3. Also, Russian men's life expectancy is 20 years less than Japanese men and 3 years less than Bangladeshi men that because of the bad healthcare system and alcohol consumption. The author thinks that the population decline is the worst issue that Russian is facing, but at the same time it looks strong because of its oil wealth. Furthermore, Russian's population structure is going to change because the number of Islamic group is growing and the Muslims might be the majority in 2050. That would affect the ethnic group. Finally, the author thinks that with the Russian disorder and European declines, the US will have stable population growth because of the fertility rates and immigration. Therefore, its effect on the developed world will rise.

I disagree with the author in three points. First, the decline in population that Russia is facing is good because this decline will make many things easer for the government. Second, the gap between the growing economy and the population decline is not a bad aspect because Russia can deal with that by several approaches. Finally, the future in Russia will be more flourishing because of its birth rate and men’s life expectancy.

In the 21st century with all this development that the world is having, the high population represents hardships that the governments should handle for their Citizens. In the coming decades the people will need more services such as good healthcare programs, high education services, and durable transportation. That is very hard to get for the government in a country that has overpopulation or high population, but it is easier for the government with less population. The population’s prosperity depends on the level of services that the government establishes for its citizens. If the government demands only on its huge population to effect on other countries without giving its citizens the level of prosperity that the other countries give to their citizens, its policy will fail. Therefore, we can notice that Russian force is back to play a strong role in the world, because of the harmony that Putin has established between the force that Russia has and the good economy that offers Russia a good level of prosperity. On the other hand, if we look at the China foreign policy we notice a narrow role that China is playing in the world with its huge population, because of the low level of prosperity that Chinese people have. The technology advancement that the world has in the current century would let the industries less dependent on people and more dependent on computers and mechanization. Therefore, the high population will not help as it used to in the past in the manufacturing process. Also, the time that the people were helping in agricultural manufacturing societies has ended. The high population makes it hard for the government to establish good services that its citizens need in order to support it in its foreign policy in this century.

The gap between the growing Russian economy and the declining in population is not a problem because of several points. First, the globalization of business makes it easy to a have business overseas and to use cheaper works in order to have more profit. Therefore, Russian companies can do business in another country with overpopulation and cheaper labor and have more profit, which helps Russia’s small population to live a very rich life. On the other hand, the high population in any country whose people’s income is limited by the government like the US would drive the business from it to other countries that have cheaper labor; that creates a huge problem because the profit would not be enough to bring a good life to the country with high population. Second, Russia can have its growing economy work by short-term contracts that save it from the endless immigration. For example, in Saudi Arabia the foreign workers come to it by short-term visa, in order to issuer the government that they will not stay forever, and their children can't get the nationality, even though they were burn in it. Third, the immigration can cover the gap between the growing Russian economy and the decline in population. For example, it can make it legal for people from other countries to immigrate to it. The decline in population will not badly affect the growth of Russian’s economy.

The birth rate and the men’s life expectancy in Russia are features for Russia in the future. First, the men’s life expectancy in Russia is 59 years of age; that will not put any pressure on the Russian economy, because the Russian economy would not spent too much to take care of people who don’t effectively participate in the manufacturing process with many chronic diseases. Second, the birth rate in Russia is 1.2 to 1.3 that means the couple would not have more than two children. That indicates the good life that this new generation would have because every child would be well educated and have more opportunities than the people in countries with high population. Furthermore, the good life that the new generation would have would make the life expectancy for them higher because they would not have any anxiety ,which could lead to drink very much alcohol. Also, the heath care system in Russia would be better because of the small population that it will have in 2050 and the oil wealth it has. Third, with the nuclear weapons that Russia has, there is no need of a lager number of troops to protect it from its enemies, because nobody can bother it. Also, the measure of the strong in this century is by the kind of weapons that the country has not the number of armies that it has. The birth rate and the men’s life expectancy reflect a good life that the new generations would have.

The world’s advanced technology, declining birth rate, declining men’s life expectancy and the ability that Russia has to cover the gap between the growing economy and population make Russian new generation's future more thriving. The 77 million or the 99 million that is expected to be Russia's population will help Russia to play a strong role in the future. Russians should be happy with this expectation because their life will be better and their children would have a great future. Also Russia’s leader should develop its healthcare system and make its new generation of the dangers of alcohol on people’s lives. Being a developed country with oil wealth and less population would lead Russia to get back in its feet strongly. Russian leaders should work on these features in order to achieve this accomplishment. The world needs more than one county as a leader in order to be led in a balanced way, because the US as the powerful country and the only country as a leader of the world fails to lead it wisely.

Reference:
Dale, H. (2008, August 20). Russian decline; Population and health woes, and alcoholism. The Washington Times. Retrieved January 20, 2009, from Lexis Nexis database.